Economics – High Technology Business Development

Coupling & Crosstalk: Moore Has Left the Building!

Dollars-Electronics canstockphoto8813445 Geleol 300x330 Coupling & Crosstalk is my column in the MEPTEC Report. This column appears in the Summer 2016 edition on pages 12-13.

Electronic coupling is the transfer of energy from one circuit or medium to another. Sometimes it is intentional and sometimes not (crosstalk). I hope that this column, by mixing technology and general observations, is thought provoking and “couples” with your thinking. Most of the time I will stick to technology but occasional crosstalk diversions may deliver a message closer to home.

Moore has Left the Building!

Unlike Elvis, Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel, is still with us. Although the debate continues among very smart people as to whether Moore’s Law is “truly dead”, this argument is now purely academic. As the electronics industry has moved to the “Post Personal Computer (PC) Era”, Moore’s Law which accurately predicted price over time for complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits, is no longer relevant.

Heresy! Did he just say that Moore’s Law doesn’t matter? Continue reading “Coupling & Crosstalk: Moore Has Left the Building!”

Coupling & Crosstalk: First World Problems

Coupling & Crosstalk is my column in the MEPTEC Report. This column appears in the Winter 2014 edition on pages 10-11.

First World Problems

Returning home with a carload of food for our Thanksgiving feast, we discovered our garage refrigerator had died. The only appropriate response other than panic was to Continue reading “Coupling & Crosstalk: First World Problems”

Trillion Sensors – TApps: Ultra-High Volume Sensor Applications for Global Challenges

Click image to download presentation — Click image to download San Diego TSensors Summit presentation (update of Munich)

It was my pleasure to organize and present at two TSensors Summits: Munich and San Diego this fall. The enthusiasm and intellectual “horsepower” of the presenters and attendees was incredible!

My presentations explain Continue reading “Trillion Sensors – TApps: Ultra-High Volume Sensor Applications for Global Challenges”

SEMI ISS 2014 – Scaling Innovation

Courtesy of Ivo Bolsens (Xilinx), SEMI ISS 2014

Don’t pop the champagne just yet! Although plenty of good news was shared at the 2014 SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) there was the sobering outlook of possible limited long-term growth due to technology issues as well as economic projections. Noticeable was the lack of news and updates on key industry developments.

This is the yearly “data rich” or “data overload” (take your pick) conference of semiconductor supply chain executives. The majority of the attendees and presenters are from the SEMI member companies that develop the equipment, materials, processes, and technology used to build, test, and package semiconductors. Keeping the pressure on for advanced technology were the “end customer” attendees and presenters – semi-conductor manufacturers.

The official theme was “Pervasive Computing – An Enabler for Future Growth” and the presentations made it clear Continue reading “SEMI ISS 2014 – Scaling Innovation”

Coupling & Crosstalk: Quality for the Long Haul?

Coupling & Crosstalk is my column in the MEPTEC Report. This column appears in the Winter 2012 edition on page 12-13.

Electronic coupling is the transfer of energy from one circuit or medium to another. Sometimes it is intentional and sometimes not (crosstalk). I hope that this column by mixing technology and general observations is thought provoking and “couples” with your thinking. Most of the time I will stick to technology but occasional crosstalk diversions may deliver a message closer to home.

Quality for the Long Haul?

Does a manufacturer’s responsibility and interest in quality end when the warranty expires?

When is death premature? People have life expectations based upon family and societal statistics as well as their health. Mechanical devices, especially those with moving parts, have estimated lives and known wear out mechanisms. Cars currently have an average age of 11 to 13 years of useful life which allows consumers to set reasonable expectations of service life. What about electronics? What is a reasonable expectation of service life?

I had a few devices at home fail recently which makes me wonder about Continue reading “Coupling & Crosstalk: Quality for the Long Haul?”

Change the Rules to Win!

Some consider the many of billions of dollars invested in the semiconductor supply chain to be huge bets on yet to be proven technology and future business. Even if you take a strict view of this as simply business it is possible to learn something from gambling.

The Atlantic tells the fascinating story of how Don Johnson took Atlantic City casinos for $15 M playing blackjack. Last year he won $5 M from Borgata in February, $4 M from Caesars in March, and $6 M from Tropicana in April. This wasn’t luck and he wasn’t card counting. How did he do this and how does this connect to semiconductors and Apple?

Continue reading “Change the Rules to Win!”

SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Other Coverage

Michael Splinter - AMAT - ISS_2012 p3 — Michael Splinter (Applied Materials) - Relative industry cost improvements and volumes.

I hope that my summaries of the first day of SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012 in

provided useful insights to the economic roller coaster that is the semiconductor market and its equipment and material supply chain. There have also been several good reports Continue reading “SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Other Coverage”

SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Session 2

After a gloomy first session focused on world economics at SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012, Session 2 – Semiconductor Markets was significantly more upbeat.

Stephen G. Newberry (Vice Chairman of the Board, Lam Research Corporation) started off with a way forward in Continue reading “SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Session 2”

SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Session 1

Like the roller coaster ride that is the semiconductor industry, the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012 had its share of ups, downs, twists, and turns. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International – better known as SEMI – as the industry association of suppliers to semiconductor manufacturers has held this annual conference in early January for thirty five years to provide updates on business conditions and technology roadmaps to enable SEMI members to plan for the coming year. The conference was packed with senior management paying close attention to the industry leaders, analysts, and customer presenters. All of the presentations, even the most poorly disguised sales pitch or infomercial, contained several valuable insights.

In his keynote presentation “Technology Law Still Delivers“, William Holt (Senior Vice President; General Manager, Technology & Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation) opened the conference with much optimism based upon Continue reading “SEMI ISS – Snapshot of a Wild Ride – Session 1”

Recovering from (our) Recession

… Not for the squeamish or faint of heart.

A few days ago, I attended the Keizai Society’s panel presentation “Recovering from Recession“. The panelists did an excellent job in interpreting the current economic data and both the short and long term issues. In addition, they cited lessons learned from Japan’s Lost Decade and how it applies to our current situation. The good news is we did learn a lot from their Lost Decade and other recessions; the bad news is that things are going to look gloomy for some time!

Dr. Daniel Okimoto, a Stanford University professor, who is Director Emeritus, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) started the evening. Even though many of the issues he raised were not “new-news”, Dr. Okimoto did an excellent job of putting them in perspective to describe the current situation.

Here are highlights of his presentation followed by some of my own analysis:

Continue reading “Recovering from (our) Recession”