Probe Cards & Dart Boards

The wildly varying projections for the semiconductor market in general and the wafer probe market in specific makes me believe that many analysts are simply torn between reporting their tea leaf readings and the scores on their dartboard. A hopefully more reliable source is VLSI Research and their annual probe market survey is eagerly anticipated every spring. One may argue about methodology but on the whole they do an excellent job of painting a comprehensive picture.

Their optimistic forecast is heartening but increased sales volume doesn’t always translate into profits and downturns when they occur can be fatal. Do you prepare for growth like a hare or a tortoise? Do you build excess capacity (“Field of Dreams“), take and fulfill new orders with lots of overtime and temporary workers, or do you forgo new business that bears high incremental start-up costs?

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