April 26, 2012
Some consider the many of billions of dollars invested in the semiconductor supply chain to be huge bets on yet to be proven technology and future business. Even if you take a strict view of this as simply business it is possible to learn something from gambling.
The Atlantic tells the fascinating story of how Don Johnson took Atlantic City casinos for $15 M playing blackjack. Last year he won $5 M from Borgata in February, $4 M from Caesars in March, and $6 M from Tropicana in April. This wasn’t luck and he wasn’t card counting. How did he do this and how does this connect to semiconductors and Apple?
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2.5D/3D Stacked Integrated Circuits (ICs), 450 mm wafers, Apple, Design Cycles, Economics, Management, Mobile Devices, Post PC Era, SEMI, Semiconductors | Tagged: 2.5D/3D Stacked Integrated Circuits (ICs), 450 mm wafers, Apple, Design Cycles, Economics, Management, Mobile Devices, Post PC Era, SEMI, Semiconductors | 
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Posted by Ira Feldman
April 17, 2012
Speed and Power
If we were focused on just these two parameters, we could be talking about horses, cars, or airplanes. But throw in density, endurance, and price and it is a horse race of different color. Not only does the winning technology have to balance speed and power, it needs to pack more functionality per area at a lower cost than existing solutions. Along with the endurance to last ten or more years.
With annual revenues once exceeding $60 B and now running $45 B due to dropping demand and prices, the global market for semiconductor memory is an exciting race. It is hard to believe that NAND Flash has grown to Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | DRAM, FLASH Memory, High Performance Computing (HPC), High Technology Business Development, IEEE, Nanotechnology, Semiconductors, Supercomputers | Tagged: DRAM, FLASH Memory, High Performance Computing (HPC), IEEE, Nanotechnology, Semiconductors, Supercomputers | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
March 15, 2012
Tim Cook introducing Apple's latest iPad
The “Post Personal Computer” (Post PC) era became the hot topic when Tim Cook introduced the latest iPad last week. Yes, calling it a “revolution” is definitely hype that is part of Apple‘s Post PC marketing campaign. Hype aside, it is clear that there has been a marked shift in digital hardware for the consumption of content and communication. The PC – be it a Windows, Mac, or Linux based system – is no longer “the device”. It is now one of many devices including portable music players (dominated by iPods), smart phones (lead by iPhones and Android based systems), and tablets (dominated by iPads). The shift is large and the impact is huge. To understand how big, watch the first three minutes of Mr. Cook’s presentation. Then you will understand why Apple had the largest market capitalization of any US company in February – the numbers are staggering.
Even though many were surprised to learn that we are now “Post PC”, some of us who have been developing strategies for the electronic supply chain have Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | 2.5D/3D Stacked Integrated Circuits (ICs), Apple, Consumer Electronics Society, Load Boards, Market Analysis, MEMS, More than Moore, Packaging (Semiconductor), Post PC Era, Printed Circuit Boards (PCB), Probe Cards, Semiconductors | Tagged: 2.5D/3D Stacked Integrated Circuits (ICs), Apple, Consumer Electronics Society, Load Boards, Market Analysis, MEMS, More than Moore, Packaging (Semicondcutor), Post PC Era, Printed Circuit Boards (PCVB), Probe Cards, Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
February 2, 2012
Michael Splinter (Applied Materials) - Relative industry cost improvements and volumes.
I hope that my summaries of the first day of SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012 in
provided useful insights to the economic roller coaster that is the semiconductor market and its equipment and material supply chain. There have also been several good reports Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Ira Feldman
January 25, 2012
After a gloomy first session focused on world economics at SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012, Session 2 – Semiconductor Markets was significantly more upbeat.
Stephen G. Newberry (Vice Chairman of the Board, Lam Research Corporation) started off with a way forward in Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Ira Feldman
January 23, 2012
Like the roller coaster ride that is the semiconductor industry, the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) 2012 had its share of ups, downs, twists, and turns. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International – better known as SEMI – as the industry association of suppliers to semiconductor manufacturers has held this annual conference in early January for thirty five years to provide updates on business conditions and technology roadmaps to enable SEMI members to plan for the coming year. The conference was packed with senior management paying close attention to the industry leaders, analysts, and customer presenters. All of the presentations, even the most poorly disguised sales pitch or infomercial, contained several valuable insights.
In his keynote presentation “Technology Law Still Delivers“, William Holt (Senior Vice President; General Manager, Technology & Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation) opened the conference with much optimism based upon Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | Economics, SEMI, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (CAPEX), Semiconductors | Tagged: Economics, SEMI, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (CAPEX), Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
January 13, 2012
…To make sense of the big picture, one needs to follow the money and then head to China.
Ed Pausa the primary author of PricewaterhouseCooper’s (PwC) recently published report “Continued Growth: China’s Impact on the Semiconductor Industry – 2011 Update” provided an overview at this month’s MEPTEC luncheon. His presentation was a helpful tour to start digesting this impressive report, now it its seventh annual update. The report runs 112 pages in length and is packed with figures, data and most importantly analysis. Building a cohesive picture from many disparate data sources is a major undertaking and PwC should be applauded for making available this excellent work.
After listening to this presentation and reading the report, I find two items that really stand out as primary market forces. Unraveling the convoluted web of the semiconductor supply chain to examine these items will lead to greater understanding of the industry. They are, Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | Marketing, MEPTEC, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (CAPEX), Semiconductors | Tagged: Marketing, MEPTEC, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (CAPEX), Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
November 10, 2011
The MEPTEC “2.5D, 3D and Beyond – Bringing 3D Integration to Packaging Mainstream” conference was a mixed-bag. Yes, it is always exciting to hear about new suppliers and progress. But it is disconcerting to realize that the price of progress is an ongoing burden on our industry’s supply chain.
Subramanian Iyer (IBM) and Theresa Sze (Oracle) started with Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Ira Feldman
June 18, 2011
On Sunday evening June 12th, 2011 Jerry Broz, the general conference chair, opened the IEEE Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop welcoming us to the 21st year with a combined total attendance of over 5,000. He also briefly highlighted the positives in recent market trend data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and VLSIresearch.
Dr. William Chen, Senior Technical Advisor, ASE Group, provided the keynote presentation “Backend to the Front Line”:
Dr. Chen started with Read the rest of this entry »
2 Comments | MEMS, Moore's Law, More than Moore, Packaging (Semiconductor), Probe Cards, Semiconductor Test, Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop, Semiconductors | Tagged: Memory Technology, Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
June 17, 2011
Click image to download presentation
As the final presenter at this week’s IEEE Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop (SWTW), I outlined how critical it is to understand the true cost of a product’s architecture in “Probe Card Cost Drivers from Architecture to Zero Defects“. Without a proper understanding of these costs – especially for fully custom high technology products such as wafer test probe cards – it is impossible to maintain a sufficient gross margin. Gross margin is essential to maintain the health of a company and to fund the research & development required for innovation.
Many companies in the semiconductor test market have entered a period that Steve Newberry identified in his 2008 speech “Semiconductor Industry Trends: The Era of Profitless Prosperity?” that parallels the aluminum industry in the 1970′s. And without the means to fund innovation, companies have no future especially when faced with the double threat of Moore’s Law – increasingly harder technical requirements delivered at lower cost.
Yes, there were a few in the audience who appeared pleased since they are confident that their products are on the right path. There were others who may have been upset based upon their company’s direction. I would argue that a proper diagnosis – regardless of how disturbing – is essential to drive the proper cure.
There is plenty of opportunity in the test market and reasons for optimism. The key to long term prosperity is to really understand the fundamentals of the business and not be blinded by the technology.
I thank those who stayed for the entire conference and welcome your thoughts below. And I will be posting more about the conference (including my summaries) in the next few weeks.
2 Comments | Automatic Test Equipment (ATE), Cost of Test, DRAM, FLASH Memory, Full Wafer / 1 Touch Down Test, High Volume Manufacturing (HVM), IEEE, Market Analysis, Multi Layer Ceramics (MLC), My Presentations, Photolithography, Printed Circuit Boards (PCB), Probe Card Metrology Tools, Probe Cards, Product Management, SEMI, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (CAPEX), Semiconductor Test, Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop, Semiconductors, Space Transformers, Test Engineers | Tagged: DRAM, FLASH Memory, IEEE, SEMI, Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
March 21, 2011
iSuppli Flash Market Forecast (Jan 2011)
There are so many different types of memory technologies that there is an alphabet soup of acronyms. Ever wonder why we have many different memory technologies some long forgotten with more on the horizon? I refreshed my own memory after last week’s IEEE Nano Technology Council presentation on conductive bridge random access memory (CBRAM).
The simple answer is Read the rest of this entry »
2 Comments | DRAM, FLASH Memory, Semiconductors | Tagged: DRAM, FLASH Memory, Memory Technology, Semiconductors | Permalink
Posted by Ira Feldman
